The Troubling Rise of Strongman Politics in El Salvador: Bukele's Third Term and the Erosion of Democracy
El Salvador is at a crossroads. President Nayib Bukele’s recent ratification as the ruling party’s candidate for a third consecutive term in 2027 has sent shockwaves through the region. Personally, I think this move is less about governance and more about the consolidation of power—a playbook we’ve seen far too often in modern politics. What makes this particularly fascinating is how Bukele has managed to maintain sky-high approval ratings while systematically dismantling democratic checks and balances.
The Cult of Personality: Bukele’s Unwavering Popularity
Bukele’s 85% reelection victory in 2024 was nothing short of astonishing. From my perspective, this isn’t just a testament to his charisma but also to the deep-seated desire among Salvadorans for stability and security. The country’s dramatic drop in homicide rates—from 106 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2015 to just 82 in 2025—has been a cornerstone of his appeal. But here’s the catch: this success came at a steep cost. The state of emergency that enabled these results has led to the imprisonment of over 90,000 people, with more than 500 deaths in custody. What many people don’t realize is that while the streets may be safer, the prisons have become a human rights nightmare.
The Constitutional Coup: Rewriting the Rules
One thing that immediately stands out is Bukele’s brazen manipulation of El Salvador’s legal framework. In 2021, the constitutional Court ruled that presidential reelection was allowed for “one term only.” Fast forward to 2025, and the Legislative Assembly—dominated by Bukele’s Nuevas Ideas party—approved a constitutional reform allowing indefinite reelection. This raises a deeper question: if the constitution is so easily rewritten to suit one man’s ambitions, what’s left of the rule of law?
Bukele’s defense of these reforms is both revealing and disingenuous. He argues that developed countries allow indefinite reelection, so why shouldn’t El Salvador? What this really suggests is a dangerous equivalence between democratic norms in wealthy nations and the realities of a small, developing country with a fragile institutional history. If you take a step back and think about it, this isn’t about aligning with global standards—it’s about creating a legal facade for authoritarianism.
The Human Cost of Security
A detail that I find especially interesting is how Bukele’s security policies have been both his greatest strength and his most glaring weakness. On the surface, the reduction in homicides is a triumph. But the methods used—mass incarcerations, a state of emergency, and allegations of extrajudicial killings—paint a darker picture. Human rights advocates like Ingrid Escobar argue that Bukele’s grip on power is a way to avoid accountability for “grave acts of corruption and crimes against humanity.” This isn’t just speculation; it’s a pattern we’ve seen in other strongman regimes.
The Global Context: Democracy Under Siege
What’s happening in El Salvador isn’t an isolated incident. From my perspective, it’s part of a broader trend of democratic backsliding across the globe. Leaders like Bukele exploit public fears—in this case, crime and violence—to justify the erosion of democratic institutions. The irony is that while Salvadorans feel safer on the streets, their democracy is under siege. This raises a critical question: are we trading freedom for security, and is that a trade we’re willing to make?
The Future of El Salvador: A Democracy in Name Only?
If Bukele’s third term bid succeeds, El Salvador risks becoming a democracy in name only. The constitutional reforms, the suppression of dissent, and the concentration of power all point to a system where elections are a formality rather than a genuine expression of the people’s will. Personally, I think this is a cautionary tale for the region and beyond. It’s a reminder that democracy isn’t just about holding elections—it’s about protecting the institutions that make those elections meaningful.
Final Thoughts
As I reflect on Bukele’s rise, I’m struck by the paradox of his leadership. He’s undeniably effective, but at what cost? The applause for his security policies drowns out the whispers of those who fear for the future of democracy. In my opinion, El Salvador stands at a precipice. The choices made today will determine whether it remains a democratic nation or becomes another cautionary tale of power unchecked. What this really suggests is that the fight for democracy is never truly won—it’s a constant battle, and one we must all remain vigilant in.
